Fantasy Basketball Draft Analysis

Well, the Ultimate Basketball Challenge expert league held it's fifth annual draft this week. It's full of a great bunch of industry folks. Here's the list:

1. Josh Whitling (ESPN)
2. Sergio Gonzalez (CBS)
3. Daniel Dobish (CBS)
4. Tom Carpenter (RotoTimes)
5. Hector Castro/David Klyce (HoopsKlyce)
6. Matt Buser (Yahoo!)
7. Steve Alexander (Rotoworld/NBC)
8. Dave Gawron (RotoCommando)
9. Tim Trout (Beckett Media)
10. Matt Lawrence (Rotoworld)
11. Jay Gleason (formerly of AuctionPlayers)
12. Keith Wayland/Antonio Delgado (KFBA)

Lineups are C-C-F-F-F-F-G-G-G-G-U-U. 5 man bench. Head2Head schedule.

Scoring:

3PT - Three Pointers Made: .08 points
AST - Assists: .17 points
BK - Blocks: .25 points
FG - Field Goals Made: .25 points
FGA - Field Goals Attempted: -.08 points
FT - Free Throws Made: .25 points
FTA - Free Throws Attempted: -.17 points
PTS - Points: .08 points
ST - Steals: .17 points
TO - Turnovers: -.17 points
TRB - Total Rebounds: .10 points

What it amounts to:

4.0+ FPPG (fantasy points per game): total studs
3.5-3.9 FPPG: stars
3.0-3.4: solid contributors
2.5-2.9: average players
2.0-2.4: end of lineup fillers
1.5-1.9: bench players

After each round, read my analysis...

Round 1
1
Seattle Whitling
Kobe Bryant (G LAL)
2
Miami Gonzalez
LeBron James (F CLE)
3
Cleveland Dobish
Dwight Howard (C ORL)
4
Detroit Carpenter
Kevin Garnett (F BOS)
5
New Jersey Castro
Gilbert Arenas (G WAS)
6
Golden State Buser
Dirk Nowitzki (F DAL)
7
Atlanta Alexander
Tim Duncan (F SA)
8
Boston Gawron
Pau Gasol (C MEM)
9
Dallas Trout
Amare Stoudemire (C PHO)
10
New York Lawrence
Steve Nash (G PHO)
11
Charlotte Gleason
Tracy McGrady (G HOU)
12
Philadelphia Wayland
Dwyane Wade (G MIA)

The scoring system attempts to mirror real life worth. Scoring is a little more important than in roto. Excessive missed shots (poor FG or FT %) and turnovers hurt. #1 was a tough call. Kobe has scored better in this system, but LeBron has the upside. That's too early for Howard. Even improvement over 06-07 won't vault him past Arenas or Dirk in this system, and certainly not past KG. Gasol is great in this system. Center eligibility, great FG%, nice assists and blocks... Wade is amazing when he plays, but do you trust him with that injury?


Round 2
13
Philadelphia Wayland
Yao Ming (C HOU)
14
Charlotte Gleason
Josh Smith (F ATL)
15
New York Lawrence
Chris Bosh (F TOR)
16
Dallas Trout
Shawn Marion (F PHO)
17
Boston Gawron
Carmelo Anthony (F DEN)
18
Atlanta Alexander
Deron Williams (G UTA)
19
Golden State Buser
Vince Carter (G NJ)
20
New Jersey Castro
Rashard Lewis (F ORL)
21
Detroit Carpenter
Paul Pierce (G BOS)
22
Cleveland Dobish
Allen Iverson (G DEN)
23
Miami Gonzalez
Carlos Boozer (F UTA)
24
Seattle Whitling
Chris Paul (G NO)

Yao was a good choice, but you do have to wonder in H2H if that big body of his will be able to make it all the way through the season. I'm too scared of Bosh's injury woes to take him in any draft. Marion's lack of turnovers is such a good trait! I thought it was a bit early for Deron Williams. Again, with the scoring counting a tad more in this league than in roto, players like Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis that can score 22+ per game get the nod. Boozer's hamstring history worries me too much.


Round 3
25
Seattle Whitling
Andre Iguodala (F PHI)
26
Miami Gonzalez
Jason Kidd (G NJ)
27
Cleveland Dobish
Baron Davis (G GS)
28
Detroit Carpenter
Caron Butler (F WAS)
29
New Jersey Castro
Al Jefferson (F MIN)
30
Golden State Buser
Gerald Wallace (F CHA)
31
Atlanta Alexander
Marcus Camby (C DEN)
32
Boston Gawron
Michael Redd (G MIL)
33
Dallas Trout
Ray Allen (G BOS)
34
New York Lawrence
Mehmet Okur (C UTA)
35
Charlotte Gleason
Luol Deng (F CHI)
36
Philadelphia Wayland
Tony Parker (G SA)

Baron Davis is too risky for me. I understand the upside of Al Jefferson, but I need to see him stay healthy for a full season before investing. Wallace throws his body around too much and will always be dinged up. I'm actually cool with Camby. He'll miss games here and there, but he's a good choice at this point in the draft. I went with Redd for his solid scoring, like Anthony in the round before. Okur's foot scares me. Deng is awesome and improving.


Round 4
37
Philadelphia Wayland
Joe Johnson (G ATL)
38
Charlotte Gleason
Andrew Bogut (C MIL)
39
New York Lawrence
Chauncey Billups (G DET)
40
Dallas Trout
Zach Randolph (F NY)
41
Boston Gawron
Emeka Okafor (C CHA)
42
Atlanta Alexander
LaMarcus Aldridge (F POR)
43
Golden State Buser
Antawn Jamison (F WAS)
44
New Jersey Castro
Jermaine O'Neal (F IND)
45
Detroit Carpenter
Kevin Durant (F SEA)
46
Cleveland Dobish
Shaquille O'Neal (C MIA)
47
Miami Gonzalez
Kirk Hinrich (G CHI)
48
Seattle Whitling
Ben Gordon (G CHI)

Centers are very valuable, since we start two, but that's too early for Bogut. Just right for Okafor, though. Maybe that's a bit early for Aldridge, but I do like him better than the totally unknown of how Durant can withstand a full season, plus the injury history of the O'Neals.


Round 5
49
Seattle Whitling
Brandon Roy (G POR)
50
Miami Gonzalez
Raymond Felton (G CHA)
51
Cleveland Dobish
Kevin Martin (G SAC)
52
Detroit Carpenter
Jason Richardson (G CHA)
53
New Jersey Castro
Ricky Davis (G MIN)
54
Golden State Buser
Ron Artest (F SAC)
55
Atlanta Alexander
Corey Maggette (F LAC)
56
Boston Gawron
Josh Howard (F DAL)
57
Dallas Trout
David West (F NO)
58
New York Lawrence
Lamar Odom (F LAL)
59
Charlotte Gleason
Rudy Gay (G MEM)
60
Philadelphia Wayland
Danny Granger (F IND)

Roy's injury worries me. I love Howard's upside. Odom's injuries worry me. I love Gay and Granger's upside.


Round 6
61
Philadelphia Wayland
Leandro Barbosa (G PHO)
62
Charlotte Gleason
Mo Williams (G MIL)
63
New York Lawrence
T.J. Ford (G TOR)
64
Dallas Trout
Jason Terry (G DAL)
65
Boston Gawron
Richard Hamilton (G DET)
66
Atlanta Alexander
Andrei Kirilenko (F UTA)
67
Golden State Buser
Mike Miller (F MEM)
68
New Jersey Castro
Andre Miller (G PHI)
69
Detroit Carpenter
Tyson Chandler (C NO)
70
Cleveland Dobish
Richard Jefferson (F NJ)
71
Miami Gonzalez
Mike Bibby (G SAC)
72
Seattle Whitling
Marvin Williams (F ATL)

Barbosa and Mo are underrated -- good picks. I think that's early for Terry, given what Coach Johnson has said about his backcourt this preseason. Rip was a "safe" pick for me. I like Richard Jefferson there, and Marvin has nice upside.


Round 7
73
Seattle Whitling
Brad Miller (C SAC)
74
Miami Gonzalez
Jamal Crawford (G NY)
75
Cleveland Dobish
Al Harrington (F GS)
76
Detroit Carpenter
Stephen Jackson (G GS)
77
New Jersey Castro
Manu Ginobili (G SA)
78
Golden State Buser
Rasheed Wallace (F DET)
79
Atlanta Alexander
Mike Dunleavy (G IND)
80
Boston Gawron
Monta Ellis (G GS)
81
Dallas Trout
Tayshaun Prince (F DET)
82
New York Lawrence
Nenad Krstic (C NJ)
83
Charlotte Gleason
Stephon Marbury (G NY)
84
Philadelphia Wayland
Andris Biedrins (C GS)

I wanted Manu or Wallace here but couldn't pass on Monta when my pick came up. Krstic's knee worries me. He'll probably be somewhat limited for a while. Marbury will earn his value, but he's declining.


Round 8
85
Philadelphia Wayland
Al Horford (F ATL)
86
Charlotte Gleason
Andrea Bargnani (F TOR)
87
New York Lawrence
Andres Nocioni (F CHI)
88
Dallas Trout
Samuel Dalembert (C PHI)
89
Boston Gawron
Randy Foye (G MIN)
90
Atlanta Alexander
Chris Kaman (C LAC)
91
Golden State Buser
Peja Stojakovic (G NO)
92
New Jersey Castro
Chris Wilcox (F SEA)
93
Detroit Carpenter
Nene (F DEN)
94
Cleveland Dobish
Eddy Curry (C NY)
95
Miami Gonzalez
Jamaal Tinsley (G IND)
96
Seattle Whitling
Hedo Turkoglu (F ORL)

Horford, Bargnani, and Foye are all nice upside picks here. The injury histories of Dalembert and Nene scare me.


Round 9
97
Seattle Whitling
Jameer Nelson (G ORL)
98
Miami Gonzalez
Ben Wallace (C CHI)
99
Cleveland Dobish
Tim Thomas (F LAC)
100
Detroit Carpenter
Andrew Bynum (C LAL)
101
New Jersey Castro
David Lee (F NY)
102
Golden State Buser
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C CLE)
103
Atlanta Alexander
Corey Brewer (F MIN)
104
Boston Gawron
Luke Walton (F LAL)
105
Dallas Trout
Tyrus Thomas (F CHI)
106
New York Lawrence
Luke Ridnour (G SEA)
107
Charlotte Gleason
Boris Diaw (F PHO)
108
Philadelphia Wayland
Drew Gooden (F CLE)

We'll have to see how Nelson does in the slow, half-court offense. Wallace is declining. That's early for Bynum, but he's a center. Lee is so solid. Ilgauskas could score more this season. Walton was a "safe" pick for me at this point. Ridnour is inconsistent with the Watson timeshare. Diaw and Gooden should both improve upon their 06-07 seasons.


Round 10
109
Philadelphia Wayland
Luis Scola (F HOU)
110
Charlotte Gleason
Darko Milicic (F MEM)
111
New York Lawrence
Charlie Bell (G MIL)
112
Dallas Trout
Steve Francis (G HOU)
113
Boston Gawron
Raja Bell (G PHO)
114
Atlanta Alexander
Rajon Rondo (G BOS)
115
Golden State Buser
Troy Murphy (C IND)
116
New Jersey Castro
Al Thornton (F LAC)
117
Detroit Carpenter
Jarrett Jack (G POR)
118
Cleveland Dobish
Ruben Patterson (F LAC)
119
Miami Gonzalez
Zaza Pachulia (C ATL)
120
Seattle Whitling
Anthony Parker (G TOR)

Scola should have a good year. I still don't trust Darko. Bell was yet another "safe" pick for me. Rondo needs to shoot and score better for this scoring system. Jack's in a timeshare. Patterson has to battle Al Thornton and Tim Thomas for minutes. Zaza is toast.


Round 11
121
Seattle Whitling
Delonte West (G SEA)
122
Miami Gonzalez
Jeff Green (F SEA)
123
Cleveland Dobish
Larry Hughes (G CLE)
124
Detroit Carpenter
Channing Frye (F POR)
125
New Jersey Castro
Josh Childress (G ATL)
126
Golden State Buser
Walter Herrmann (F CHA)
127
Atlanta Alexander
Acie Law (G ATL)
128
Boston Gawron
Shane Battier (F HOU)
129
Dallas Trout
Devin Harris (G DAL)
130
New York Lawrence
Wally Szczerbiak (F SEA)
131
Charlotte Gleason
Charlie Villanueva (F MIL)
132
Philadelphia Wayland
Kyle Korver (F PHI)

The Sonics are sort of hard to peg right now, so be careful when drafting them. I wouldn't touch Hughes at ths point in his career. I like those Hawks, Childress and Law. Even with Morrison out, Herrmann is a big unknown. Again, I went "safe" with Battier. Villanueva is in too much of a minutes battle.


Round 12
133
Philadelphia Wayland
Juan Carlos Navarro (G MEM)
134
Charlotte Gleason
Elton Brand (F LAC)
135
New York Lawrence
Matt Barnes (F GS)
136
Dallas Trout
Kenyon Martin (F DEN)
137
Boston Gawron
Udonis Haslem (F MIA)
138
Atlanta Alexander
Nick Collison (C SEA)
139
Golden State Buser
Quentin Richardson (F NY)
140
New Jersey Castro
Paul Millsap (F UTA)
141
Detroit Carpenter
Jason Maxiell (F DET)
142
Cleveland Dobish
Ryan Gomes (F MIN)
143
Miami Gonzalez
Mark Blount (C MIN)
144
Seattle Whitling
Chris Webber (C DET)

That's about right for Brand. I consider Kenyon a waste at this point. I should have taken Collison to have a decent third center. Haslem will be solid for me, though. You can't trust Q-Rich, with his injury history. Millsap and Maxiell are nice, but they might not get enough minutes. Blount could actually do well when Shaq goes down. Where O where is Webber these days?


Round 13
145
Seattle Whitling
Hakim Warrick (F MEM)
146
Miami Gonzalez
Sam Cassell (G LAC)
147
Cleveland Dobish
Grant Hill (G PHO)
148
Detroit Carpenter
Cuttino Mobley (G LAC)
149
New Jersey Castro
Craig Smith (F MIN)
150
Golden State Buser
Morris Peterson (G NO)
151
Atlanta Alexander
Jerry Stackhouse (F DAL)
152
Boston Gawron
Mike Conley (G MEM)
153
Dallas Trout
Kwame Brown (C LAL)
154
New York Lawrence
Mickael Pietrus (F GS)
155
Charlotte Gleason
Ike Diogu (F IND)
156
Philadelphia Wayland
Jose Calderon (G TOR)

Cassell and Hill -- old and injured -- not a good combo. I took enough "safe" picks earlier that I could gamble on Conley here. There's just not much left at thi point of the draft.


Round 14
157
Philadelphia Wayland
Andray Blatche (F WAS)
158
Charlotte Gleason
Gerald Green (G MIN)
159
New York Lawrence
Mike James (G HOU)
160
Dallas Trout
Joakim Noah (F CHI)
161
Boston Gawron
Chucky Atkins (G DEN)
162
Atlanta Alexander
Rafer Alston (G HOU)
163
Golden State Buser
Ronnie Brewer (G UTA)
164
New Jersey Castro
Travis Outlaw (F POR)
165
Detroit Carpenter
Matt Carroll (G CHA)
166
Cleveland Dobish
Rashad McCants (G MIN)
167
Miami Gonzalez
Jorge Garbajosa (F TOR)
168
Seattle Whitling
Bobby Simmons (F MIL)

Atkins actually has a chance of being ecent in that Denver offense. I thought about Alston, but it's SO crowded in that Houston Backcourt. Brewer has had a great preseason and won that Utah shooting guard job. I like the Garbajosa pick, too.


Round 15
169
Seattle Whitling
Desmond Mason (F MIL)
170
Miami Gonzalez
Jianlian Yi (F MIL)
171
Cleveland Dobish
Dorell Wright (F MIA)
172
Detroit Carpenter
Martell Webster (G POR)
173
New Jersey Castro
Louis Williams (G PHI)
174
Golden State Buser
Jason Kapono (F TOR)
175
Atlanta Alexander
Stromile Swift (C MEM)
176
Boston Gawron
Brevin Knight (G LAC)
177
Dallas Trout
Marcus Williams (G NJ)
178
New York Lawrence
Jamaal Magloire (C NJ)
179
Charlotte Gleason
Rodney Stuckey (G DET)
180
Philadelphia Wayland
Jason Williams (G MIA)

I'm not happy about that Milwaukee forward logjam, so I would avoid those players. Dorell Wright lost his value with Ricky Davis in town. Knight's assists are nice in this league, but Magloire probably would have been better for me as my third center. Jason Williams is nice here if he can stay healthy and hold off Smush Parker.


Round 16
181
Philadelphia Wayland
Kelenna Azubuike (F GS)
182
Charlotte Gleason
DeShawn Stevenson (G WAS)
183
New York Lawrence
Anderson Varejao (C CLE)
184
Dallas Trout
Chris Duhon (G CHI)
185
Boston Gawron
Kendrick Perkins (C BOS)
186
Atlanta Alexander
Earl Watson (G SEA)
187
Golden State Buser
Willie Green (G PHI)
188
New Jersey Castro
Brendan Haywood (C WAS)
189
Detroit Carpenter
J.R. Smith (G DEN)
190
Cleveland Dobish
Daniel Gibson (G CLE)
191
Miami Gonzalez
Brandan Wright (F GS)
192
Seattle Whitling
Trevor Ariza (F ORL)

There's just nothin left here. Well, Stevenson actually isn't too bad at this point. I desperately wanted a third center at this point. I let Haywood go, figuring Blatche would just play the Etan Thomas role this year, limiting Big Brendan to basically what he did last year, which isn't much. Perkins was just about the only alternative. I figure he can get some junk points and boards off of misses and dump-offs from the Big Three.


Round 17
193
Seattle Whitling
Francisco Garcia (F SAC)
194
Miami Gonzalez
Earl Boykins (G MIL)
195
Cleveland Dobish
Theo Ratliff (C MIN)
196
Detroit Carpenter
Hilton Armstrong (F NO)
197
New Jersey Castro
Robert Swift (C SEA)
198
Golden State Buser
Antonio McDyess (F DET)
199
Atlanta Alexander
Kenny Thomas (F SAC)
200
Boston Gawron
Derek Fisher (G LAL)
201
Dallas Trout
Shareef Abdur-Rahim (F SAC)
202
New York Lawrence
Nate Robinson (G NY)
203
Charlotte Gleason
Marco Belinelli (G GS)
204
Philadelphia Wayland
Amir Johnson (F DET)

Fisher was just about the last player that was pretty much guaranteed 30 minutes per game. He'll be my first cut when I pick up a free agent.