Draft Perceptions

by Seth Trachtman

The dream of winning the NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool has withered away for most of us, and draft season is well underway. Following two fantasy baseball drafts and many experts’ leagues to use as a benchmark, the undervalued and overvalued picks for 2006 are clear.

Undervalued

Eric Gagne, RP: Fantasy owners are scared off by the elbow injury from 2005. My contention with this is that he is no more or less an injury risk now than he was in 2004 or 2005. Remember, Gagne has had Tommy John surgery in the past, a much more serious elbow injury than the one he had last season. Before this year he was bar-none the top closer option available. The history of elbow problems was the exact reason why I never considered drafting Gagne for such a high price earlier in his career, and the same is the case with Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner. Each has a history of arm injuries hardly different than that of Gagne. Though, now that Gagne is undervalued, I am getting the chance to draft him for the first time.

Todd Helton, 1B: Helton is still drafted highly but not high enough. Last season is a worst-case scenario for his potential performance. That worst-case scenario was still a .320-20-79 hitter that hit nearly .370 during the second half of the season. All signs point toward his back being healthy now (that was apparently a major hindrance last season), and he is still only 32-years-old. Last season was the first time in Helton’s career that he failed to play 150 games or reach 90 RBI. He has still hit at least .315 every year of his career, and a healthy back at least means a few more home runs and RBI. I would still take him before one-year performer Derrek Lee.

Greg Maddux, SP: We see this every year; old pitchers being undervalued. In Maddux’s case, he is in a clear decline. That said, he is still above average for all leagues. The K/9 is dropping, but Maddux’s BB/9 remains consistently outstanding. And his K/9 was the second highest that it has been last season since 2002. His streak of 15 wins ended last season. So what? He has still pitched at least 199 innings during each season of his career since 1988, and there is no reason that should change this year.

Overvalued

Bobby Jenks, RP: Jenks apparently showed up to camp overweight, to the chagrin of Ozzie Guillen. You’re surprised because…? His makeup has always come into question as a prospect, so showing up to camp 25 pounds heavier should not be all that surprising. Jenks was certainly impressive following his call-up late last season. Though, remember this is the same player that the Angels organization gave up on. This is the same player that could not get the ball over the plate early in his pro career. As recently as last season he struggled to avoid walks in Double-A. Calling former Blue Jays closer Cliff Politte, your potential role is ready.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B: Since most people have hardly seen Zimmerman, and he has hardly seen pro ball himself, we chalk this overvalued pick up to the media hype machine. His defense has already been compared to Brooks Robinson, and the bat has taken off in spring training. I believe we will see another case in point of why spring training stats don’t matter here. Zimmerman has hit seven home runs, but he showed very little power in college and could really struggle to get the ball over the fence in RFK Stadium. Honestly, I am not convinced that his mediocre plate discipline is conducive to a .300 average in the majors either. Yet he went for $14 in the NL-only Tout Wars Experts League. He was similarly expensive in my local mixed league auction. Roto rule to live by: never pay big bucks for rookie hitters.