Draft Perceptions

by Seth Trachtman

The dream of winning the NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool has withered away for most of us, and draft season is well underway. Following two fantasy baseball drafts and many experts’ leagues to use as a benchmark, the undervalued and overvalued picks for 2006 are clear.

Undervalued

Eric Gagne, RP: Fantasy owners are scared off by the elbow injury from 2005. My contention with this is that he is no more or less an injury risk now than he was in 2004 or 2005. Remember, Gagne has had Tommy John surgery in the past, a much more serious elbow injury than the one he had last season. Before this year he was bar-none the top closer option available. The history of elbow problems was the exact reason why I never considered drafting Gagne for such a high price earlier in his career, and the same is the case with Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner. Each has a history of arm injuries hardly different than that of Gagne. Though, now that Gagne is undervalued, I am getting the chance to draft him for the first time.

Todd Helton, 1B: Helton is still drafted highly but not high enough. Last season is a worst-case scenario for his potential performance. That worst-case scenario was still a .320-20-79 hitter that hit nearly .370 during the second half of the season. All signs point toward his back being healthy now (that was apparently a major hindrance last season), and he is still only 32-years-old. Last season was the first time in Helton’s career that he failed to play 150 games or reach 90 RBI. He has still hit at least .315 every year of his career, and a healthy back at least means a few more home runs and RBI. I would still take him before one-year performer Derrek Lee.

Greg Maddux, SP: We see this every year; old pitchers being undervalued. In Maddux’s case, he is in a clear decline. That said, he is still above average for all leagues. The K/9 is dropping, but Maddux’s BB/9 remains consistently outstanding. And his K/9 was the second highest that it has been last season since 2002. His streak of 15 wins ended last season. So what? He has still pitched at least 199 innings during each season of his career since 1988, and there is no reason that should change this year.

Overvalued

Bobby Jenks, RP: Jenks apparently showed up to camp overweight, to the chagrin of Ozzie Guillen. You’re surprised because…? His makeup has always come into question as a prospect, so showing up to camp 25 pounds heavier should not be all that surprising. Jenks was certainly impressive following his call-up late last season. Though, remember this is the same player that the Angels organization gave up on. This is the same player that could not get the ball over the plate early in his pro career. As recently as last season he struggled to avoid walks in Double-A. Calling former Blue Jays closer Cliff Politte, your potential role is ready.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B: Since most people have hardly seen Zimmerman, and he has hardly seen pro ball himself, we chalk this overvalued pick up to the media hype machine. His defense has already been compared to Brooks Robinson, and the bat has taken off in spring training. I believe we will see another case in point of why spring training stats don’t matter here. Zimmerman has hit seven home runs, but he showed very little power in college and could really struggle to get the ball over the fence in RFK Stadium. Honestly, I am not convinced that his mediocre plate discipline is conducive to a .300 average in the majors either. Yet he went for $14 in the NL-only Tout Wars Experts League. He was similarly expensive in my local mixed league auction. Roto rule to live by: never pay big bucks for rookie hitters.

NBA Game Totals down the stretch

by Matt Lawrence

There will be three fantasy periods left in the fantasy hoops season heading into next Monday's action. Seven teams play 14 times in that period, while the vast majority play 12 or 13. The Lakers play a league minimum 10 times in the final three weeks.

Teams with the most games: Atlanta, Indiana, New Jersey, Washington, Golden State, New Orleans and Phoenix. Note all go 4,4,6 except for the Suns will go 5,3,6

Middle-end players like Josh Childress, Zaza Pachulia, Jeff Foster, Anthony Johnson, Nenad Krstic, Antonio Daniels, Derek Fisher, Mike Dunleavy, Speedy Claxton, Rasual Butler, Leandro Barbosa and Tim Thomas are worthy options with the game heavy schedules.

CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball Experts Head-to-Head League Draft, Part 2

by Dave Gawron

Hi again. I recently completed a CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball Experts Head-to-Head League Draft. Go here for all the rules and complete results and such...

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/fantasy/story/9271751

Here's the rest of the draft (I reviewed my first ten picks a couple of days ago), plus a little strategy at the end...

10.08, Chad Cordero, RP, WAS

Cordero turned into an elite closer last season. He pitches in a pitchers' park for a team with good starting pitching but questionable offensive support, so he should get plenty of opportunities in 2006.

11.05, C.C. Sabathia, SP, CLE

I was considering C.C. along with Dan Haren and Noah Lowry here. I picked Sabathia because he's a bit more established, though he has worked the most innings of the three and is most likely to break down. Still, his track record gave him the nudge.

12.08, Dan Haren, SP, OAK

Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden... The A's always seem to have the next solid starting pitcher. To me, Haren is the latest in the line. He was solid in 2005 and could do even better this season.

13.05, Erik Bedard, SP, BAL

Bedard battled injury last year which led to control problems in the second half (after a REALLY nice first half). He's young with room for improvement, he's got a solid lineup behind him, and a great new pitching coach in Leo Mazzone. I believe that Mazzone will help Bedard this year like he did Jorge Sosa in Atlanta last year.

14.08, Derrick Turnbow, RP, MIL

Turnbow shocked the world last year, racking up saves and great supporting stats to go with them. Just because someone has done something only once doesn't mean that they won't be able to do it again. His ERA might get up towards 3.50 this year, but he should be a solid source of saves and points at the RP position in this league.

15.05, Jeff Weaver, SP, LAA

Weaver's ERA was inflated last year due to a few bad starts. He should get a little more support from the Angels offense than the Dodgers, so more wins could be in store.

16.08, Derek Lowe, SP, LAD

The National League agreed with Lowe last year and should do so again in 2006. He just needs to keep his control in check and keep inducing ground balls with that sinker of his.

17.05, Brian Fuentes, RP, COL

Fuentes skills support the fact that Coors has no effect on him, so expect another solid year. In this league, we can only use two relief pitchers, which I already had. However, I saw an opportunity here to grab who I felt was the last reliable closer. I can use him in case of an injury to one of my two starters, but more likely, I'll trade him to fill a need at some point in the season.

18.08, John Thomson, SP, ATL

Thomson is a really nice pick this year. His stats were awful last year, but before his injury problems, he was a sought after pitcher due to his nice skill set. He's definitely a target for me in all leagues this year, due to the fact that he'll blow away his 2005 stats and out-earn his draft position.

19.05, Tim Wakefield, SP, BOS

Wakey is just a safe pick here. He's streaky, so when he looks "on" for a few weeks, I'll use him. When he's cold, I'll sit him.

20.08, Bruce Chen, SP, BAL

Chen came into his own last year. He's my 8th starting pitcher, and we can only use five per week, so I figured I'd take a chance and see if Mazzone can keep him going well.

21.05, Brandon Claussen, SP, CIN

Like Chen, Claussen was really good down the stretch last season. He struggled with gopheritis early, but really controlled it down the stretch. If it looks like he can control it in 2006, I'll use him. If not, I'll cut him and try somebody else.

22.08, Anthony Reyes, SP, STL

Unfortunately, in this league, he'll likely be one of my first cuts, but there's no doubt in my mind that he'll pitch significantly good innings in the Cardinals' starting rotation this season. Ponson? Puh-leeze.

So here's a brief strategy summary for the standard CBS Sportslinf Head-to-Head Fantasy Baseball scoring system. Only 60 starting pitchers are needed weekly in this league (out of 150 in the majors). Fill your starting line-up first. When filling your starting line-up, it's all about total points early on. Run the scoring through your projections, come up with a solid list, and get those points. Try solid, proven (but not aging) players in the early rounds. As you move along, pay attention to the drop in points among positions. For example, when I grabbed Mauer, he was way ahead of remaining catchers (in this system) with just conservative projections. Grab all pitchers for reserver so you can rotate in two-start pitchers. Grab pitchers with potential (Bedard, Claussen) without reaching.

Stay tuned for Seth Trachtman and Matt Lawrence to work their way into our blog over the next few days.

CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball Experts Head-to-Head League Draft, Part 1

by Dave Gawron

Howdy. I recently completed a CBS Sportsline Fantasy Baseball Experts Head-to-Head League Draft. Go here for all the rules and complete results and such...

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/fantasy/story/9271751

Before I hit the sack today, I wanted to share my first ten picks and some thoughts behind the selections. Soon, I'll let you know how the rest of the draft went and give you advice, should you find yourself in a similar draft. Okay, here we go...

1.05, Mark Teixeira, 1B, TEX

There was really no contest here. He went .301-43-144 last year, is young, in a good lineup in a great ballpark. He should approximate those numbers again in 2006, but even if he falls a bit short, he'll still outscore the other available players like Abreu, Ortiz, and D. Lee in this system.

2.08, Andruw Jones, OF, ATL

I know he won't hit 50 home runs this year, but in this system, the big boppers are the ones that carry teams, so I'll take his consistent 40 HRs and 110 RBIs with potential for more. He's in his prime, so he could out-earn this draft slot.

3.05, Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM

I was debating between Beltran and Sheffield, but Beltran won. Sheff has a higher ceiling, but a lower basement. I think Beltran stays healthier this year, which immediately boosts his numbers. I also believe that having Delgado behind him in the lineup and just on the team in general will also help him out a great deal. He's still in his prime, so though I don't expect him to top 25 HRs or SBs, the potential is still there.

4.08, Rafael Furcal, SS, LA

After nabbing a 1B and 2 OFs, I steered my attention towards the infield. In order for the Dodgers to manufacture runs this year, Furcal will have to get on base and steal bases. He started slowly last year, but finished strong. I believe that he can stay strong all year this year. 28 is an age I like.

5.05, Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM

Carlos is a masher that proved down the stretch last year that it doesn't matter which park he calls home. He's aging, and the nagging injuries seem to mount by the year, but 33 is by no means over the hill. True, his new home park isn't much better than his old one, but he's in the middle of a fearsome lineup, and he's a lock for at least 30 HRs and 100 RBI with a decent average to boot.

6.08, Jorge Cantu, 2B/3B, TB

I was thinking Ensberg here, but he was snagged a few picks earlier. The fact that Cantu doesn't walk at all hurts, but he's surrounded by good hitters in his lineup, he has mulitple position eligibility, and he's young, so he should at least come close to what he did last year. I'll take .280-25-90 from a second-baseman in Round 6.

7.05, Joe Mauer, C, MIN

After carefully considering my options here, I felt that between what's available now and who the next ranked player is by position, Mauer's gap to the next catchers was greater than the best available 2B/3B/OF and the next best available 2B/3B/OF. I guess I'm saying that I played the "position scarcity" card here. There are certainly other good catchers out there(Varitek, Posada, etc.) but just not as good as Mauer in this scoring system.

8.08, Pat Burrell, OF, PHI

Burrell started strong in 2005, then regressed, then finished strong. He's in a great home park surrounded by great hitters. He finished strong because he increased his walks and cut down on his Ks. If he can continue those trends in 2006, we could see a .300-40-120 year out of him. I'll take .280-30-90 in this draft slot, though.

9.05, Troy Glaus, 3B, TOR

Glaus does have a history of injury and a low batting average, which is why he lasted until Round 9. However, he toughed it through his 2005 injuries for a strong season. The hope here is that he can simply give me a repeat performance, though in that nice Toronto lineup, he could exceed his 2005 numbers and maybe even approach 40 HRs.

10.08, Chad Cordero, RP, WAS

Cordero turned into an elite closer last season. He pitches in a pitchers' park for a team with good starting pitching but questionable offensive support, so he should get plenty of opportunities in 2006.

Opening Day

by Dave Gawron

Howdy! I'm setting up shop to provide you with the news and analysis you need to win your fantasy sports league. Friends like Seth Trachtman of RotoDraftKit.com and freelance sportswriter Matt Lawrence will drop by, too. Stay tuned for more info!